Plan Bay Area 2050+ Final Blueprint Underscores Progress Toward Key Goals 

Aerial view of Jackson Street in Oakland.
Credit
Karl Nielsen

The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) have released the Final Blueprint analysis for Plan Bay Area 2050+, the region’s long-range plan update guiding growth and investment through the year 2050. The analysis demonstrates how the region can accommodate over 900,000 new households and more than 1.3 million new jobs by 2050, while fostering a more affordable, connected, diverse, healthy and vibrant Bay Area.  

The Final Blueprint incorporates updated strategies shaped by two years of extensive planning and public engagement. Outreach included over 40 pop-up workshops in equity-priority communities, three regionwide surveys, 22 partnerships with community-based organizations and a series of webinars and technical workshops. The resulting strategies direct more than $1.4 trillion in investments toward Bay Area transportation, housing, economic development and environmental resilience.  

Key Findings from the Final Blueprint

  • Transportation and Mobility: By 2050, the share of people commuting via transit, biking or walking could more than double as a result of investments in safer and expanded transit services as well as active transportation infrastructure. In addition, the share of people driving to work (58% today) is expected to drop to less than 50%.  
  • Transit Access and Housing: Enhanced transit service, combined with land use strategies that concentrate growth near existing transportation corridors, could result in double-digit increases in the share of households with access to rail, ferry or frequent bus service.  
  • Housing and Affordability: Households with low income could see a 42% reduction in their share of income spent on housing thanks to the plan’s strategies for affordable housing production, preservation and renter protections. Households of all income levels could see a reduction of approximately 12% in their housing cost burden.  
  • Environment and Resilience: The plan’s resiliency strategies could protect 95% of Bay Area homes that would be vulnerable to sea-level rise. Retrofit strategies are expected to reduce the risk of damage from earthquakes and wildfire by 25-50%. Residents could also enjoy access to more open space, even with robust expected population growth.
  • Plan Bay Area 2050+ Climate Target: Subject to review and approval by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the plan is expected to meet its statutory 2035 target of a 19% per capita reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from light-duty vehicles compared to 2005 levels. Strategies such as investments in electric vehicles, roadway pricing, land use policy changes and investments in transit are expected to play a significant role in meeting GHG reduction goals.  

To learn more about the Final Blueprint analysis findings, including detailed performance and equity outcomes, see the Final Blueprint compendium. 

Next Steps 

The Final Blueprint will be reviewed for advancement into the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) environmental review phase at the following public meetings:  

If approved, MTC and ABAG will initiate a formal environmental analysis, which will include the Plan Bay Area 2050+ Final Blueprint, a “no project” alternative and two additional alternatives aimed at minimizing environmental impacts. In late summer 2025 the following documents will be released for public review:  

  • Draft Plan Bay Area 2050+  
  • Draft Environmental Impact Report  
  • Draft Implementation Plan (outlining key actions through 2030)  

A final round of public engagement will take place in fall 2025. Based on public feedback, staff will revise the draft plan before seeking final approval of the Plan Bay Area 2050+ along with its Final Environmental Impact Report and Implementation Plan in early 2026.